In the first half of 2025, US emissions spike by 48M Tonnes (48.57 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent), representing a 1.43% rise compared to the same period in 2024. This jump stands out against the backdrop of international efforts to mitigate climate change and accelerate the transition to global clean energy.

According to Climate TRACE data (as of August 28, 2025), the U.S. was the single largest contributor to the global rise in fossil fuel emissions during this timeframe, offsetting the progress made by other nations. While the Inflation Reduction Act and other policies aimed at accelerating the transition to clean energy were in place, short-term economic and energy demands led to an increase in emissions.

Source: Climate Trace

How Do Emissions from the US Compare to Those from Clean Energy Sources Around the World?

Globally, GHG emissions for the first half of 2025 totaled 30.99 billion tonnes CO₂e, a 0.13% increase from 2024.

• June 2025 snapshot: 5.12 billion tonnes CO₂e (up 0.29% year-on-year).
• Methane emissions increased by 0.49%, reaching 34.82 million tonnes.
• Power generation: a bright spot, with a global decrease of 60.27 million tonnes CO₂e.

The United States alone accounted for over half of the global fossil fuel rise, which totaled 77.65 million tonnes (+1.5%).

Other regional trends:

• Brazil: +1.24% (9.84 million tonnes CO₂e).
• India: +0.21% (4.44 million tonnes CO₂e).
• China (power sector): –1.7%, contributing to a global decline in power emissions.

Figure: Share of Global CO₂ Emissions by Country. Source: IEA

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Global Emissions Snapshot (Jan–Jun 2025)

Source: Climate TRACE, 2025

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US Emissions Spike by 48M Tonnes: Why Are Emissions Increasing?

• Dependency on fossil fuels: Transportation and industry were the main drivers of the 1.5% increase in global fossil fuel operations.
• Natural gas demand in the US: Higher gas use continued trends from 2024 (+2.5% in emissions).
• Manufacturing growth: Added 0.3% (18.75 million tonnes CO₂e), with contributions from India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil.

Source: Climate Trace

Meanwhile, some nations bucked the trend:

• China, Mexico, and Australia made measurable progress in decarbonization.
• Yet, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its 2025 review that emissions from energy sources hit record highs in 2024, showing that renewable growth is not keeping up with fossil fuel demand.

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Clean Energy Progress: A Silver Lining

Despite rising fossil fuel emissions, there are encouraging signs for the global clean energy transition:

• Renewables boom: In 2024, renewables supplied over 40% of global electricity, mainly from solar and wind.
• Power sector cuts: Global coal emissions decreased by 11%, while oil emissions fell by 0.3%.
• India’s power sector: Emissions down 0.8% in the first half of 2025.
• China’s power sector: Emissions down 1.7%.

Figure: Global Wind and Solar Power Generation. Source: Ember

Still, challenges remain:

• Investment in global clean energy and low-emission fuels is expected to reach a record in 2025, but at under $30 billion, it remains far below the required amount.
• According to the World Economic Forum’s 2025 Energy Transition Index, 65% of nations are making progress; however, financing gaps and risks related to energy security persist.

Most importantly, the IPCC cautions that to keep global warming to 1.5°C, emissions must peak by 2025 and decrease by 43% by 2030. Current trajectories suggest this target is slipping out of reach.

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FAQs on US Emissions Surge

Q1. Why does the US emissions spike by 48M Tonnes matter globally?

More than half of the increase in fossil fuel emissions worldwide in early 2025 came from the United States. This makes it harder for international climate agreements, such as the Paris Accord, and efforts to expand global clean energy, to stay on track.

Q2. What sectors are most responsible for the increase?

Transportation, natural gas consumption, and manufacturing are the main drivers of U.S. and global emissions growth.

Q3. How are other countries performing?

China and India are reducing power-sector emissions, while Brazil and the U.S. saw increases. Progress varies widely depending on national energy policies.

Q4. What can governments do to cut emissions faster?

• End fossil fuel subsidies.
• Accelerate renewable infrastructure projects.
• Strengthen climate accountability in industries.

Q5. What role can individuals play?

• Adopt energy-efficient practices at home.
• Support clean transport (EVs, public transit).
• Push for policy reforms through civic engagement.

Q6. What’s expected for full-year 2025?

If fossil fuel demand continues, emissions may keep rising. However, the IEA projects that clean energy investments could soften the overall increase by the end of the year.

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